Verizon CEO Predicts AI Will Push Unemployment to 20–30% — Laid Off 13,000 Workers and Put $20M Into Retraining
Dan Schulman, Verizon’s CEO, is making a prediction that puts him at the pessimistic end of the executive spectrum: AI will push unemployment to 20–30% within a few years. That range is two to three times the post-pandemic peak and approaches levels last seen during the Great Depression.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Schulman said corporate leaders who minimize AI’s job-displacement impact are being dishonest with their workforces.
The $20M Bet That He Means It
Verizon eliminated 13,000 positions last year — one of the largest AI-driven headcount reductions in the US telecoms sector. Simultaneously, the company launched a $20 million career-transition fund providing retraining support, placement assistance, and financial resources for affected workers. Schulman framed both moves — the layoffs and the fund — as directly connected to the AI transition.
At 13,000 displaced workers, the fund averages roughly $1,538 per person. It is a signal of intent more than a structural solution.
Where the 20–30% Figure Comes From
Schulman’s forecast sits above most academic projections but is not without empirical grounding. A Taub Center study published this year found AI already accounts for up to 15% of rising unemployment among programmers and 18% among telemarketing workers in Israel — an economy with high tech penetration and a useful leading indicator. Federal Reserve researchers have estimated roughly 30% of the US labour force holds roles with significant AI exposure.
The key variable is speed. Previous automation cycles — manufacturing in the 1980s, offshoring in the 2000s — moved over decades and left time for sector transitions. Schulman’s position is that software jobs are in scope this time, the models are capable now, and the adjustment timeline is years, not decades.
The Executive Consensus Is Shifting
Schulman is not alone. Other senior voices — including bank CEOs and technology executives — have made similar projections over the past six months, though most stop short of naming a specific percentage. What makes Schulman’s position notable is the combination of specificity (20–30%), seniority (Fortune 50 CEO), and concrete action (a fund backed by actual layoffs).
For comparison: Verizon’s $20 million retraining commitment is 0.003% of its 2025 annual revenue. The gap between the scale of the warning and the scale of the response is its own signal.