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SpaceX is pricing its IPO Thursday, June 11, with investor demand exceeding $250 billion — roughly four times the $75 billion the company is seeking to raise. Trading starts Friday, June 12. At $135 per share, the valuation sits near $1.77 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering.

The demand figures are extraordinary. What the roadshow slides do not feature is equally significant.

What the S-1 Discloses on xAI

SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal in February 2026, valued at $250 billion at the time of the merger. The S-1/A, updated June 1, consolidates xAI’s financials into the AI segment.

The numbers:

• AI segment 2025 revenue: $3.2 billion (Grok enterprise, X data licensing, early data centre contracts)
• AI segment 2025 operating loss: $6.4 billion
• AI segment total accumulated losses: $41.3 billion
• AI segment Q1 2026 capex: $7.7 billion — 76% of all SpaceX capex in the quarter
• Starlink 2025 operating margin: approximately 63%

The Starlink business is carrying the AI bet in full. Starlink’s margins fund the compute buildout that xAI requires to train and serve frontier models. Without Starlink’s cash generation, the AI segment’s burn rate would be structurally unsustainable at the scale the roadshow projects.

The Pitch xAI Is Making

SpaceX’s roadshow materials identify a $23 trillion addressable market in AI compute, claiming it is the only operator capable of deploying AI infrastructure beyond Earth’s power and cooling constraints. Orbital data centres, Starship-delivered compute clusters, and an AI compute grid unconstrained by terrestrial land and electricity costs are the long-range framing.

The near-term reality is a ground-based GPU cluster running Grok at a loss. The gap between the roadshow narrative and the segment financials is large enough that several analysts have described the AI segment’s valuation as entirely optionality-driven — there is no current earnings path that justifies the implied price.

Demand Structure

With $250 billion in demand against a $75 billion raise, the offering is roughly 3.5 to 4 times oversubscribed. MSCI announced June 9 that it will apply its standard early-inclusion treatment for large-cap IPOs, meaning passive index funds will need to buy SpaceX shares after listing to maintain their tracking ratios. That structural buy pressure is providing a significant portion of the pre-pricing demand signal.

Demand shifted materially after June 5, when the earlier estimate of $10 billion in institutional orders gave way to estimates above $200 billion. The $250 billion figure, reported by sources close to the deal, represents total indicated interest, not committed orders — final allocation will be substantially smaller.

The Three-Way IPO Wave

SpaceX is the first of three AI-adjacent companies moving toward public markets. Anthropic filed its S-1 confidentially and is targeting an October Nasdaq listing at roughly $965 billion. OpenAI has also filed confidentially with no firm date. All three would need to price as public companies within roughly twelve months of each other, absorbing hundreds of billions in new AI equity supply at a moment when capital is already concentrated in the sector.

The SpaceX IPO is the test of whether public investors will pay the same multiples that private rounds have been pricing for the past eighteen months. At $1.77 trillion and four times oversubscribed, Thursday’s price sets the floor for everything that follows.