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S&P Dow Jones Indices published its consultation results on June 4 and declined to change the eligibility rules for the S&P 500, rejecting calls from market participants to create a fast-track path for companies with “unprecedented market capitalizations.”

The ruling specifically ends SpaceX’s attempt to negotiate accelerated index entry as a condition of its IPO. It also, as a direct consequence, forecloses the same option for OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which are expected to list in 2026 and had anticipated similar treatment.

What SpaceX Asked For

The S&P Dow Jones consultation, published April 30, outlined three proposed rule changes that would have accommodated SpaceX and, by extension, the broader MegaCap IPO cohort:

1. Seasoning period: Shorten the new-IPO waiting time from 12 months to 6 months
2. Float requirement: Waive the requirement that at least 10% of shares be publicly available — SpaceX planned to offer approximately 3% in its IPO
3. Profitability: Waive the requirement that a company demonstrate profitability in the latest quarter plus the previous four quarters

The profitability waiver was the most consequential. S&P 500 inclusion drives billions of dollars in automatic purchasing from passive funds that track the index. Without it, inclusion happens only when a company is profitable on the standard timeline — something OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are not.

The Implications for AI Lab IPOs

OpenAI has confidentially filed for IPO and is targeting a Nasdaq listing later this year. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at $965B valuation with an October listing targeted. Both carry the same structural problem: massive revenue growth alongside operating losses driven by compute costs and research spending.

Anthropic is on track for its first profitable quarter with Q2 revenue heading toward $10.9B, but one quarter of profitability does not satisfy the S&P 500’s requirement for four consecutive profitable quarters.

The decision to hold the profitability line means passive fund flows — which represent the largest single buyer category at index entry — will not arrive on day one of listing. That matters because index inclusion typically triggers automatic purchases from trillions of dollars in passive equity funds, creating a predictable demand surge. Without it, the opening market caps of OpenAI and Anthropic will depend more heavily on active institutional buyers.

Bloomberg’s Read

Bloomberg characterized the ruling as “closing the door to fast entry for big tech IPOs like SpaceX and delaying billions of dollars in flows from passive funds.” The decision was framed as unusual — market analysts had largely expected S&P to accommodate SpaceX given its scale and public investor interest — and is being read as a signal that index governance bodies are cautious about exposure to AI infrastructure balance sheets.

Ars Technica noted the ruling may also come as relief to passive investors and retirement fund holders concerned about exposure to the capital risks of AI compute buildouts, which carry large upfront costs and uncertain long-term economics.

What Changes Nothing

The ruling does not affect the IPOs themselves. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic can still list and trade on major exchanges. Investors can still buy shares. The gap is specifically the automatic passive inflow that index inclusion would have triggered — a demand floor that makes index entry one of the most reliable post-IPO price supports in public markets.

For OpenAI and Anthropic specifically, the S&P decision may accelerate pressure to demonstrate profitability ahead of listing rather than after. Anthropic’s Q2 trajectory makes that plausible in the near term. OpenAI’s compute obligations — including reported monthly payments of $1.25B to SpaceX for Colossus GPU capacity — make it considerably harder.